Assessing Pakistan’s Odds for Semifinals in the 2023 ODI World Cup after NZ-SL Match

In the wake of New Zealand’s convincing five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka on November 9 in the 2023 ODI World Cup, Pakistan finds itself facing an uphill battle to secure a spot in the highly coveted semifinals. The Men in Green, who currently have eight points in the tournament, must now secure a resounding victory against England to stand a chance at making it to the top four. Let’s delve into the statistics and scenarios that will determine Pakistan’s fate in this crucial match.

New Zealand’s triumph has catapulted them to 10 points after nine matches, accompanied by an improved net run rate of +0.743. In contrast, Pakistan sits at eight points with a net run rate of +0.036. The disparity in points and net run rate adds pressure to Pakistan’s upcoming clash against England at the Eden Gardens on November 11.

To qualify for the semifinals, Pakistan faces a daunting task. The Men in Green must secure a victory against England by more than 274 runs at the Eden Gardens on Saturday, November 11. In the event of batting second, Pakistan would need to chase down the target in a mere 2.3 overs. The sheer magnitude of these requirements indicates that Pakistan’s chances have been severely compromised, leading many to consider them virtually knocked out of the competition.

Adding another layer of complexity, the outcome of the Pakistan-England match will not only decide Pakistan’s fate but also influence England’s qualification for the Champions Trophy 2025. A victory for England ensures their berth in the prestigious tournament, while a substantial defeat could jeopardize their participation in the ICC event scheduled to be held in Pakistan two years later.

A closer examination of Pakistan’s journey in the league round reveals a missed opportunity that could have altered their current predicament. If Pakistan had secured one more victory in the 2023 World Cup league round, they could have secured a semifinal berth even with a narrow win over England. The match against South Africa at the MA Chidambaram Stadium on October 27 stands out as a critical turning point. Pakistan, having set a target of 271, had South Africa reeling at 260/9 in the 46th over. However, a crucial 11-run partnership between Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi guided South Africa to victory, denying Pakistan a crucial win.

As the cricketing world awaits the showdown between Pakistan and England, the implications of the NZ-SL clash are undeniable. Pakistan’s path to the semifinals has narrowed significantly, and the team finds itself on the brink of elimination. The outcome of the upcoming match not only shapes Pakistan’s fate but also holds the key to England’s future in champions trophy qualification. Pakistan fans must hang tight and hope for a thrilling match against England at the Eden Gardens. We are about to see if they can do the undoable task.